A few days ago, I commented that we don’t understand population behavior. We don’t know why birth rates are collapsing in some places and holding up in others. We know the individual factors that contribute to it (such as housing availability), but we also know that none of them is absolutely crucial. Everyone has their pet theories, of course – conservatives different from liberals. But none of them is compatible with the empirical data.
It is very similar with out-of-wedlock births. Just look at the chart below. Until a few years ago, we might have thought that this was due to the difference between Catholic and Protestant countries. But clearly this is not the case. Does social policy play a role in this (whether full families or single mothers are favoured)? Obviously yes, but it is not the dominant influence. And again, we are at the point of not knowing.In a few cases we know what started the change (often it was the social policy), but we don’t know how to undo it.
It’s good to promote reasonably conservative rules. Of course, when conditions are set up so that men are afraid to enter marriage (and have objective reasons to do so) and that raising fatherless children is financially favored, it has an effect. But let’s not expect that removing those faults will lead to a remedy. The statistics would probably shift by a few percent, maybe not even that. The whole issue is much more complex than that.
By the way, did you know that many great men in European history, including some important rulers, were bastards?
