We have seen how a slight chance can decide the fate of entire civilizations. All it would have taken was for one bullet to fly five centimetres to the right, Donald Trump would be dead and nothing would stand in the way of a group of people for whom the nuclear apocalypse is a lesser evil than the Russians escaping punishment (whether they deserve it or not).

Except the bullet didn’t fly a few inches to the right and Trump stepped up. We don’t know how many voters he’ll get by doing so. His supporters didn’t even consider him a coward before, and his opponents blamed him for things other than a little belligerence. But much more important is the expectation. Once there is a sense that the event has strengthened Trump, no stronger candidate will want Biden’s job. The willingness to work in the campaign will diminish. The willingness to give money will go down. Only a huge mistake can stop Trump. Which is not to say he won’t.

But it’s not all a fluke. It is no accident that Donald Trump has shown incredible bravery. In a situation he could not have rehearsed. While many others would have collapsed (think of the hysterical reactions of Czech liberal politicians when they get a hostile email), Trump’s natural instinctive reaction is to want to fight back. The iconic photo of him with his arms clenched and the flag in the background will be viewed for generations to come.

Incidentally, we are witnessing an interesting paradox, with brave people speaking out against war and cowardly wretches calling for fighting without end (with no thought of taking part themselves).

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