In the so-called “first phase of the operation”, the Russians probably expected a quick military victory, followed by political negotiations at EU and NATO level on the future of Ukraine. They did not expect Ukraine to have the most advanced Western anti-tank and anti-aircraft technology at its disposal in such numbers. They did not expect the Ukrainian army to have secure online access to intelligence information, enabling it to strike their weak spots, such as poorly protected convoys, ammunition dumps and so on, with quick attacks. Nor did they apparently expect to have a large number of Western advisers, and although NATO denies it, small special forces from its countries operating on Ukrainian territory.
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Both the political leadership of Russia, led by Putin, and the command of the Russian military have clearly learned their lesson. There have been replacements at the highest levels of the Russian military. Probably the most important change is the significant reassessment of objectives, where instead of a political negotiation, building on military success, Russia has chosen the path of achieving military victory in eastern Ukraine, seizing Donetsk and Luhansk and securing the corridor to Crimea. It is questionable how much the possibility of seizing the Black Sea ports of Kherson and Odessa and the coastal territories of Ukraine up to the border with Romania play into these plans.
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There will be no winners in this war. Everyone will lose. The Russian Federation will defeat Ukraine militarily and achieve its declared goal, regardless of the massive support of the West. But the impact of sanctions and poor relations with the West will continue long after the war is over. Ukraine will lose a large part of territory that is important to it geographically and economically. NATO now looks like it is succeeding. But when everyone realises how cowardly the Americans have been, fighting to the last Ukrainian soldier but fearing a direct confrontation with Russia, they will lose much of their prestige. They will certainly lose respect and military relations in the Middle East.
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The Czech Republic will come out of this conflict practically the worst off. We are the main enemy of the Russian Federation, we have sent a lot of money to Ukraine, which we will sorely miss after the kovid pandemic, and we have taken in not only hundreds of thousands of economically weakened people, but almost certainly criminal elements and militants, all with virtually no control whatsoever.
David Bohbot is a Czech-Israeli security expert.
