The sanctions against Russia have ended in a complete debacle. That is, if their aim was to limit Russia’s ability to wage war. They can only be considered a success if the aim was to lower the standard of living of the people of Europe, to destroy a large part of European industry and to bring gigantic profits to a small layer of speculators. Even the liberal mainstream prefers not to talk about them anymore – except for a few utter fanatics who continue to cling to the belief that if we get even poorer, it will somehow mystically bring Russia to its knees.
But it has another continuation. There is a debate in Russia about sanctions to the contrary. What if the Russians stopped supplying some vital raw materials (like a few precious metals, which are very hard to replace)? What if they started ignoring intellectual property and merrily started producing Western brands or stolen patents? Who could stop them? What if Russian companies were banned from paying in dollars and accepting payments in dollars?
That they haven’t done anything like that yet doesn’t make the Russians nice. It means that they are waiting for a more appropriate situation. When we are even worse off, when we are even weaker, and when it will cause us much more damage. Because they haven’t lost the ability to plan and act rationally. They have not forgotten that even conflict can be conducted rationally and effectively. Unfortunately for us.