The environment of Muslim countries in North Africa and the Middle East tends to create groups that we might call criminal gangs, but in another era would have been called, for example, militant companies. Simply armed groups that combine fanaticism, business interests and respectable fighting prowess. And each chieftain’s ambition to establish his own kingdom. Groups very similar to those that ruled, for example, the territory of our countries before the Czech state. For us, it was in the 8th century. But the Islamic countries are still in the 8th century in a way.
Second. These gangs are greatly aided by the religiously motivated support of a section of the population. And also the willingness of a large part (maybe even the majority) of the male population to join them. When the enemies are on their knees and when my side is looting, almost everyone is a member of the jihadist army. When the enemies attack, there are very few jihadists. Most of the men become ordinary civilians. There is no line between combatant and non-combatant. This was the case even before the Czech state was established.
Third. This is in an environment where almost every political leader has an alliance with everyone and everyone has a score to settle with everyone. And if you want to hurt somebody, the easiest and least risky way is to arm one of the warlord gangs that are springing up on a treadmill.
Fourth. However, if that group manages to come to power, it is irreversible. It could only be stopped by a hard-acting and centralised force, in 21st century parlance a “dictator”. He would have to act harshly and brutally, and in real life it is virtually impossible to consistently distinguish between members of a warlord gang and the surrounding population.
In recent years, we tend to blame everything bad on the Americans. Rightly so. But the four points above do not need an American presence. In the destruction of Lebanon, the Assad dynasty supported the jihadist crazies. Nor was the takeover of Iran by fanatical gangs in 1979 definitely not the work of Americans. If Russia or China prevail in the Middle East, they will face the same reality.
All together, unsolvable. But the very worst in the end. If that description is correct, then this is the future of the UK, Germany, France, Sweden and others. There too, the same kind of breeding ground is forming. Islam, the absence of a dictator and smaller political formations.