Thus, we have another area where the West has achieved a clear superiority over Russia – apart from promotional videos. Namely, in the ability to estimate the adversary.
It’s not hard to imagine yourself sitting in Putin’s shoes. You are playing a game where the goal is to protect the independence of the Russian empire from the American super empire. Any outcome that means the demise of your own empire (or its conquest by the West) is unacceptable, and any outcome that would make Russia’s position so much worse that it would be easier to destroy in the future is unacceptable. Other goals (e.g., gaining or holding territory) are unimportant.
The US military has just attacked with medium range missiles and you have sufficient capacity to counter-strike decisively. You have only a limited number of options to choose from.
- Tolerate it and try to wait out the period until the new president takes office.
- A direct missile attack against the U.S.
- A very limited strike against a European NATO country.
- A very hard and large-scale strike against Ukraine
Directly contact the next president and quickly agree on a joint course of action
… and maybe a few others. But the possibilities are not limitless. Each has some advantages and some disadvantages.
In principle, anyone can guess what Putin’s next steps will be.
But on the other hand, you can’t. There’s no point in imagining that you’re sitting in the White House and figuring out the options for maintaining American dominance. Because there is a demented man sitting there who is not even remotely capable of understanding such complex matters. There is no point in imagining anything similar about other Western elites, because clearly collective madness prevails. A mob irrationality where absolutely anything is possible. Is it possible that they will think of using nuclear weapons? It’s okay. Is it possible they will attack their own cities or their own allies? That’s fine. Is it possible they will turn their attention elsewhere tomorrow? That’s fine. Will they replace combat action with a fashion show? That’s fine.
It’s impossible to predict the other side’s behavior. I wouldn’t want to play against such an opponent.