The four months that have passed since the US debacle in Afghanistan make it increasingly clear that this was a model that has been successful from the perspective of commanders and managers. It is therefore highly likely that it will be repeated on other battlefields.
It may sound absurd at first, but just look at it from the perspective of the individual actors.
American winners…
Army command. No one was forced to shoot himself after a shameful defeat, as was done in the old days. No one was shamefully demoted. There was no purge of the General Staff. There has been no radical reform of the leadership of the armed forces. There are not even reports that anyone’s pay has been cut. The military continues to focus on critical issues like appointing transgender admirals and finding dangerous extremists – young white guys who really want to fight the enemy. Summed up: Another successful event.
There was no purge of the General Staff. There has been no radical reform of the leadership of the armed forces.
Politicians. Biden was badly damaged by the Afghan debacle. But it’s questionable whether he can fully appreciate that in his mental state. Everyone else has profited from it. Including parts of the Democratic Party and parts of the White House staff who are pushing Kamala Harris. No one has been fired, no one has been rushed to court, no major screw-up has taken place. So a successful event, too.
Consultants and experts. It may have happened that someone’s contract was not renewed, but there was no big blowout. The media took over the explanation that Biden didn’t listen to good advice, and that’s it. Now some will get more contracts for analysis and recommendations that will drag on for years with zero results. The more astute ones will recommend that the military focus instead on climate and sexual minority issues. It would do that anyway. For them, Afghanistan has been a success.
Now some will get more contracts for analysis and recommendations that will drag on for years with zero results.
Weapons manufacturers and military equipment suppliers. The taxpayer even paid to arm the Taliban. No contract has been terminated. The army’s budget has not been cut. Let’s move on!
Bankers. The United States went into debt with the war, will be paying it off for decades, the banks have certain profits and the bankers have management bonuses. Isn’t that great?
The results of the Afghan colonial conquest are similarly positive for multicultural activists who will integrate “refugees,” for sponsors of the Islamization of the West, and other groups.
People act on the feedback they receive. And in this case, the feedback clearly says: Keep it up! Do this again and again.
People act on the feedback they receive. And in this case, the feedback clearly says: Keep it up!
…and American losers
Especially if we imagine an alternative scenario. Suppose the Americans really wanted to change the situation in Afghanistan, and that they wanted to move it towards our idea of human rights. They would be serious and would support a local Kemal Ataturk or Hafez el-Assad. He would really modernise the country. He would build a wall on the border with Pakistan, send girls to school, allow other religions and ban the worst parts of Islamic law, and even introduce some very limited elements of democracy. The West would have to tolerate that modernisation comes with a level of brutality that is normal in those countries. Despite that brutality, Afghanistan would become a better place to live and would stop generating terrorist groups. But if the local liberal dictator were a real leader, he would probably unleash local nationalism, be unfriendly to multinational corporations, buy some weapon from China and Russia and look sceptically at American advisers. The West would have won, but each of the above groups would be worse off than they are today.
But let’s go back to the real events. Did they also have their losers in America and Western Europe? Of course! And there were many more:
- Private soldiers dying needlessly in a distant land,
- Their families,
- Taxpayers
- Other people who will be victims of Afghan criminality in the US and Europe,
… and others.
Only none of them have enough political and financial power, so the impact on their lives doesn’t matter.
