In the war against Russia, Western “analysts” have been relying on miracle weapons for two years. Every few weeks they promise us a turnaround, and every time it turns out the same. Now that miracle weapon seems to be Donald Trump. Yes, the same Trump who is such a nasty person that he wouldn’t come within 100 yards of him. However, we read that Trump will decide, Trump will arrange, Trump will not accept… it’s time to sober up.
First. Not even Donald Trump can change the overall balance of power. The capabilities of Western arms factories cannot even remotely compete with Russia’s. Western warehouses are empty. Ukrainians are being killed by the thousands. They ran out of trained ones long ago and will soon run out of untrained ones. In fact, the only strategic option left is to escalate the war in such a way that bombs start exploding on the territory of European NATO members.
Second. Negotiation means that there are two parties (or more parties), each coming up with some demands or positions, and together they find a compromise acceptable to all. Someone gets more of their demands, someone gets less. That’s how it works in real life, and that’s how it has worked throughout history. Trump cannot order Putin around and Putin cannot order Trump around.
And let’s not forget that Donald Trump has a clear mandate from his voters to end the war, even at the cost of bringing down Zelensky’s fascist regime. That Putin’s regime is not much better is not a sufficient reason to fund the war.
It’s sad that ordinary sociologists have to be reminded of these basic facts. That professional security experts are unable to process it.